Dan Martin vs Alex Rybakov | Tiburon Qualifying Round of 32

Tiburon · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round of 32

CAN

Dan Martin

#620ATP

1313ELO

1276Hard ELO

$20kYTD

$108kCAREER

27 yrs · 175 cm

Last 10

LWLLLLLLLL

—

Sets

Sunday, 13 September 2026 · 14:30

hard

BAKER MCKENZIE COURT · 4th on

USA

Alex Rybakov

#478ATP

1352ELO

1310Hard ELO

$23kYTD

$255kCAREER

29 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

LLWLWWLLWL

Martin D.

Rybakov A.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC

Martin D.33%

Rybakov A.67%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Rybakov A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Martin D.

5.0

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Rybakov A.

5.8

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

4.6Hard Elo 1276

Surface ELO

5.4+34 Hard Elo edge

4.5Overall Elo 1313

ELO gap

5.5Overall Elo 1352

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

1.41 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

3.64 of last 10 on hard

0.0

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Fatigue & Travel

Country comfort

6.2Won 70% in USA (97)

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

20 vs 16 matches

Statistics

This season

Martin D.Rybakov A.

1st serve in·Slight edge

61%

66%

1st serve points won·Even

69%

67%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

52%

45%

Service points won·Even

62%

60%

Return points won·Slight edge

33%

38%

Break points saved·Slight edge

66%

55%

Aces / match·Clear edge

5.0

3.3

Double faults / match·Even

3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Martin D.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Rybakov A.

Rybakov A.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Martin D.

Serve advantage — Rybakov A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Martin D.Rybakov A.

Freshness·Even

100

Martin D.: 20 days rest · Rybakov A.: 21 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

4th on BAKER MCKENZIE COURT · Followed By · 3 matches still to finish ahead

Conditions

Weather forecast

25°CClear

Wind 16 km/hHumidity 34%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Dan Martin vs Alex Rybakov — Tiburon Qualifying Round of 32