Matilde Jorge vs Anastasia GasanovaW50 Evora Final

W50 Evora · ITF · Final
#300WTA
1449ELO
1442Hard ELO
$76kYTD
$224kCAREER
22 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 13 September 2026 ·
hard
#192WTA
1491ELO
1485Hard ELO
$273kYTD
$757kCAREER
27 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWWLLW
Jorge M.
7-5 6-4
Gasanova A.
Jorge M.
762
Gasanova A.
540

Matilde Jorge won the W50 Evora final, defeating Anastasia Gasanova 7-5, 6-4. The match saw Jorge commit 10 double faults and convert 20% of her break points, while Gasanova had 7 double faults and converted 25% of her break points. Both players won 2 service breaks each.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Momentum · Final
Jorge M.7/9
Gasanova A.7/13

hold to 0/15to 30to 40 / deucebroken

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-09-03W50 LeiriaR16hardAnastasia Gasanova0-6 3-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
44%
Service points won·Even
55%
55%
Return points won·Even
45%
48%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
52%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.6
0.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.9
5.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Jorge M.22%
Gasanova A.78%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Gasanova A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.5Hard Elo 1442
Surface ELO
5.5+42 Hard Elo edge
4.5Overall Elo 1448
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1491
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
4.85 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.06 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
100

Gasanova A.: 20 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
29°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 36%

Draw