Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Dusan Lajovic — Seville Final

Seville · CHALLENGER · Final
Facundo Diaz Acosta
ARG3
Facundo Diaz Acosta
#82ATP
1681ELO
1668Clay ELO
$374kYTD
$1.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
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—
Sets
Sunday, 13 September 2026 ·
clay
Central · 1st on
Dusan Lajovic
SRB
Dusan Lajovic
#167ATP
1620ELO
1588Clay ELO
$348kYTD
$11MCAREER
36 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWWLWW
Diaz Acosta F.
vs
Lajovic D.

Facundo Diaz Acosta faces Dusan Lajovic in the Seville final on clay. Facundo Diaz Acosta is the paper favourite — ranked #82, a roughly 80-point clay Elo advantage — but Dusan Lajovic has won 2 of their 3 previous meetings. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Diaz Acosta F.68%
Lajovic D.32%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Diaz Acosta F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Diaz Acosta F.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Lajovic D.
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.0+81 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Clay Elo 1588
5.8Overall Elo 1680
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1620
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
9.49 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.86 of last 10 on clay
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

37 vs 30 matches

Statistics

This season
Diaz Acosta F.Lajovic D.
1st serve in·Even
64%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
52%
Service points won·Even
62%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
43%
37%
Break points saved·Even
60%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.1
4.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.5
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Diaz Acosta F.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Lajovic D.

Lajovic D.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Diaz Acosta F.

Serve advantage — Diaz Acosta F.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Diaz Acosta F.Lajovic D.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
7
43
Break points saved·Clear edge
72
87
Break points won·Even
16
18
Deciding sets·Dominant
4
58
Tiebreaks·Dominant
35
69

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Diaz Acosta F.Lajovic D.
Freshness·Clear edge
54
71

Diaz Acosta F.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 96 games (7d) · Lajovic D.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 66 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather forecast
37°CClear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 13%

Head to head

1–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-19Australian OpenQ1hardDusan Lajovic7-6 5-7 7-6
2026-01-12Australian OpenQ128hardDusan Lajovic7-6(3) 5-7 7-6(3)
2024-02-12Buenos AiresQFclayFacundo Diaz Acosta6-4 6-3

Draw