Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka β€” Shanghai Semi-final

Shanghai Β· CHALLENGER Β· Semi-final
#461ATP
1176ELO
1166Hard ELO
$22kYTD
$150kCAREER
29 yrs Β· 185 cm Β· Left-handed
Last 10 Β· pre-match
WWWWLLLLWL
0 β€” 2
Sets
Saturday, 12 September 2026 Β·
hard
Center Court Β· 2nd on
#393ATP
1538ELO
1509Hard ELO
$35kYTD
$3.4MCAREER
32 yrs Β· 193 cm Β· Right-handed
Last 10 Β· pre-match
WWWLWWLWWW
Castelnuovo L.
3-6 4-6
Ivashka I.
Castelnuovo L.
340
Ivashka I.
662

Ilya Ivashka defeated Luca Castelnuovo in the semifinals of the Shanghai tournament, winning 6-3, 6-4 on hard courts. Both players served one ace and did not commit any double faults. Ivashka converted all his break points and secured two service breaks to Castelnuovo's one.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Momentum Β· Final
Castelnuovo L.5/9
Ivashka I.8/11

hold to 0/15to 30to 40 / deucebroken

Key context

  • Match story: Ilya Ivashka closed it out in two sets, 6–3 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve inΒ·Slight edge
57%
62%
1st serve points wonΒ·Slight edge
76%
68%
2nd serve points wonΒ·Even
51%
50%
Service points wonΒ·Even
65%
61%
Return points wonΒ·Slight edge
36%
41%
Break points savedΒ·Even
53%
57%
Aces / matchΒ·Clear edge
6.2
3.6
Double faults / matchΒ·Even
2.8
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (9 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match Β· updated 08:50 UTC
Castelnuovo L.36%
Ivashka I.64%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge Β· Ivashka I. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model Β· 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
3.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (βˆ’0.5)
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (βˆ’0.5)
Form & Matchup
0.7Hard Elo 1166
Surface ELO
9.3+343 Hard Elo edge
0.5Overall Elo 1176
ELO gap
9.5Overall Elo 1538
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.95 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.18 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors β€” matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation β€” into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
FreshnessΒ·Even
59
57

Castelnuovo L.: 1 day rest Β· 4 matches, 90 games (7d) Β· Ivashka I.: 1 day rest Β· 3 matches, 64 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
27Β°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 54%

Draw