Malaika Rapolu vs Katie Swan — W50 Evora Round of 16

W50 Evora · ITF · Round of 16
USA
Malaika Rapolu
#352WTA
1396ELO
1383Hard ELO
$20kYTD
$61kCAREER
23 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLLWWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 10 September 2026 ·
hard
Katie Swan
GBR5
Katie Swan
#207WTA
1554ELO
1477Hard ELO
$221kYTD
$1.1MCAREER
27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLWWL
Rapolu M.
4-6 6-3 1-6
Swan K.
Rapolu M.
4611
Swan K.
6362

Katie Swan defeated Malaika Rapolu in the Round of 16 at the W50 Evora tournament. The match ended with a score of 6-4, 3-6, 6-1 in favor of Swan. Both players converted 4 service breaks, with Swan having a 27% conversion rate on break points and Rapolu at 44%.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

  • Match story: Katie Swan came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–4 3–6 6–1.

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-08W35 Southaven 1QFhardMalaika Rapolu5-7 7-5 6-2

Statistics

This season
Rapolu M.Swan K.
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
46%
Service points won·Even
58%
61%
Return points won·Even
49%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
60%
Aces / match·Even
2.6
2.8
Double faults / match·Even
3.2
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Rapolu M.15%
Swan K.85%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Swan K. heavily favoured

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Rapolu M.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Swan K.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.8Hard Elo 1383
Surface ELO
6.2+94 Hard Elo edge
3.0Overall Elo 1396
ELO gap
7.0Overall Elo 1554
7.8Leads 2–0 on hard
H2H
2.2Trails 0–2 on hard
6.36 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.14 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Rapolu M.Swan K.
Freshness·
—
100

Swan K.: 17 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
27°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 32%

Draw