Yuki Mochizuki vs Chase Ferguson — M25 Sapporo Round of 16

M25 Sapporo · ITF · Round of 16
JPN
Yuki Mochizuki
#664ATP
$8kYTD
$116kCAREER
28 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLWWWWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 10 September 2026 ·
hard
AUS7
Chase Ferguson
#646ATP
$6kYTD
$35kCAREER
27 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLWWWL
Mochizuki Y.
2-6 4-6
Ferguson C.
Mochizuki Y.
240
Ferguson C.
662

Chase Ferguson defeated Yuki Mochizuki 6-2, 6-4 in the Round of 16 at the M25 Sapporo tournament. Ferguson converted 38% of his break points and secured three service breaks en route to the win. He hit zero aces and committed two double faults, compared to Mochizuki's one ace and one double fault.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-14M25 BrisbaneR32hardChase Ferguson6-4 6-2

Statistics

This season
Mochizuki Y.Ferguson C.
1st serve in·Even
69%
71%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
60%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
56%
62%
Return points won·Even
35%
38%
Break points saved·Clear edge
51%
64%
Aces / match·Even
2.3
2.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.3
1.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 9). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 01:50 UTC
Mochizuki Y.49%
Ferguson C.51%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Mochizuki Y.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Ferguson C.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
2.63 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.63 of last 6 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather
21°CMainly clear
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 53%

Draw