Elias Ymer vs Pavel Kotov — Shanghai Round of 32
Shanghai · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
1 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 8 September 2026 ·
hard
Court 6 · 1st on
Ymer E.6-3 3-6 6-7
Kotov P.
Ymer E.
63691
Kotov P.
367112
Pavel Kotov defeated Elias Ymer in the Round of 32 of the Shanghai tournament on hard courts. The match ended with a score of 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 in favor of Kotov. Both players recorded 3 service breaks and converted break points at a 23% and 27% rate respectively.
Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.
Key context
- Match story: Pavel Kotov dropped the opening set before beating Elias Ymer 3–6 6–3 7–6.
Head to head
2–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-18 | Moscow | Q1 | hard | Elias Ymer | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2021-10-16 | Moscow | Q16 | hard | Elias Ymer | 6-2 6-3 |
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Even
61%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
78%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
54%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
69%
Return points won·Even
35%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
65%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.7
6.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.7
1.7
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTCYmer E.47%
Kotov P.53%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchForm & Matchup
4.1Hard Elo 1527
Surface ELO5.9+74 Hard Elo edge
4.4Overall Elo 1548
ELO gap5.6Overall Elo 1597
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H5.0First meeting on hard
2.93 of last 10 on hard
Surface form7.18 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Conditions
Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
27°CPartly cloudy
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 55%