Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Felix BalshawCassis Round of 32

Cassis · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#149ATP
1620ELO
1598Hard ELO
20 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLWLLL
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 8 September 2026 ·
hard
Central · 4th on
#252ATP
1551ELO
1397Hard ELO
20 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWWLL
Budkov Kjaer N.
6-4 6-4
Balshaw F.
Budkov Kjaer N.
662
Balshaw F.
440

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer defeated Felix Balshaw in the Round of 32 of the Cassis hard-court tournament, prevailing 6-4, 6-4. Kjaer hit 7 aces to Balshaw's 5 and converted 40% of his break points, while Balshaw converted none. Kjaer won two service breaks to Balshaw's zero, and committed one double fault to Balshaw's two.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

  • I am very happy, it is so much emotion. I was crying at the end when I had the smash to do on match point. I thought of all the sacrifices I have made since the start of my career. I took it day after match after match, I believed in myself from day one.

    Balshaw F.L'Équipe
  • It was all a question of mental strength.

    Balshaw F.L'Équipe

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
54%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
79%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
63%
66%
Return points won·Even
38%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.0
12.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.5
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Budkov Kjaer N.68%
Balshaw F.32%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Budkov Kjaer N. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.5+200 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.5Hard Elo 1397
5.9Overall Elo 1620
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1551
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.74 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.87 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
82
51

Budkov Kjaer N.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 36 games (7d) · Balshaw F.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 125 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
27°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 74%

Draw