Juan Pablo Varillas vs Federico ArnaboldiGenoa Round of 32

Genoa · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#234ATP
1440ELO
1431Clay ELO
30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 8 September 2026 ·
clay
Court 1 · 4th on
#521ATP
1328ELO
1289Clay ELO
26 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLLLWLW
Varillas J.
5-7 7-5 6-1
Arnaboldi F.
Varillas J.
5762
Arnaboldi F.
7511

Juan Pablo Varillas defeated Federico Arnaboldi in the Round of 32 of the Genoa tournament on clay. The match ended with a score of 5-7, 7-5, 6-1 in favor of Varillas. Varillas hit 7 aces and 3 double faults, converted 67% of break points, and made 8 service breaks, compared to Arnaboldi's 6 aces, 2 double faults, 56% break point conversion, and 5 service breaks.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
50%
Service points won·Even
60%
61%
Return points won·Even
42%
42%
Break points saved·Even
59%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.7
4.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.5
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
27
39
Break points saved·Dominant
68
41
Break points won·Dominant
45
15
Deciding sets·Dominant
31
80
Tiebreaks·Dominant
39
80

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Varillas J.55%
Arnaboldi F.45%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
4.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.8+142 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.2Clay Elo 1289
6.4Overall Elo 1440
ELO gap
3.6Overall Elo 1328
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
7.68 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.64 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
47
53

Varillas J.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 131 games (7d) · Arnaboldi F.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 97 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
27°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 76%

Draw