Francesco Passaro vs Juan Pablo Varillas — Genoa Round of 16
Passaro F.
Francesco Passaro faces Juan Pablo Varillas in the Genoa round of 16 on clay. Francesco Passaro is the paper favourite — ranked #207, a roughly 150-point clay Elo advantage — but Juan Pablo Varillas arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 6 on clay to Francesco Passaro's 3.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Passaro F. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Francesco Passaro comes in with 1 days of rest and 113 games in 14d, vs Juan Pablo Varillas's 1 and 150.
- Last match: Francesco Passaro dropped the opening set before beating Lorenzo Sonego 3–6 6–4 6–4.
- Last match: Juan Pablo Varillas dropped the opening set before beating Federico Arnaboldi 5–7 7–5 6–1.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (11 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadPassaro F.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d) · Varillas J.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 131 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.