Gael Monfils vs Learner TienUS Open Round of 64

US Open · ATP · Round of 64
#307ATP
1803ELO
1784Hard ELO
40 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWLLLWLW
Sets
Thursday, 3 September 2026 ·
hard
#15ATP
1941ELO
1904Hard ELO
20 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLWLWWWWLL
Monfils G.
vs
Tien L.

Gael Monfils faces Learner Tien in the US Open round of 64 on hard. Learner Tien holds the paper edge — ranked #15, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 128.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Monfils G.21%
Tien L.79%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Tien L. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
4 common opponents · Monfils G. 2–2 · Tien L. 1–3 · small sample
Both lost · different surfaces (Hard × Grass)
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.5Hard Elo 1784
Surface ELO
6.5+121 Hard Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1803
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 1941
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
4.54 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

10 vs 30 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
72%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
44%
50%
Service points won·Even
61%
63%
Return points won·Even
36%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
8.5
7.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.6
4.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (10 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Monfils G.serving77% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Tien L.

Tien L.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Monfils G.

Serve advantage — Tien L.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
86
91
Break points saved·Even
96
92
Break points won·Slight edge
79
88
Deciding sets·Slight edge
89
99
Tiebreaks·Even
97
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
79
84

Monfils G.: played today · 1 match, 29 games (7d) · Tien L.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
28°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 80%

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-08-06MontrealR64hardLearner Tien6-3 0-6 6-3

Draw