Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel — US Open Round of 64

US Open · ATP · Round of 64
Jiri Lehecka
CZE18
Jiri Lehecka
#19ATP
1922ELO
1882Hard ELO
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLWWLLWW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 2 September 2026 ·
hard
Court 5 · 3rd on
GBRQ
Toby Samuel
#110ATP
1745ELO
1729Hard ELO
23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWWWWW
Lehecka J.
vs
Samuel T.

Jiri Lehecka faces Toby Samuel in the US Open round of 64 on hard. Jiri Lehecka is the paper favourite — ranked #19, defending last year's quarter-final, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage — but Toby Samuel arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 7 on hard to Jiri Lehecka's 4.

Around the match

  • Samuel impressing with strong hardcourt form (27-4 this year) and straight-sets victory over injured Tomas Machac in first round.

    Samuel T.Last Word On Sports ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Lehecka J.82%
Samuel T.18%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Lehecka J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
1 common opponents · Lehecka J. 1–0 · Samuel T. 1–0 · small sample
Both won · hard to compare — different surfaces (Hard × Grass) · 9 months apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Lehecka J.
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Samuel T.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.9+154 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.1Hard Elo 1729
7.2Overall Elo 1922
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1745
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.77 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
9.09 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
7.0Reached the quarters here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
2.0Opponent hot: 9 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

30 vs 33 matches

Statistics

This season
Lehecka J.Samuel T.
1st serve in·Even
65%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
75%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
54%
Service points won·Even
68%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
73%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.7
3.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.1
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Lehecka J.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Samuel T.

Samuel T.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Lehecka J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Lehecka J.Samuel T.
Freshness·Slight edge
79
70

Lehecka J.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 38 games (7d) · Samuel T.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 77 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

3rd on Court 5 · 2 matches still to finish ahead

  1. 1WPaolini J. v Stefanini L.Live
    6-44-1
  2. 2MChoinski J. v Van De Zandschulp B.
  3. 3MLehecka J. v Samuel T.This match

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
21°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 77%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw