Ariana Arseneault vs Anastasia GasanovaW50 Leiria Round of 32

W50 Leiria · ITF · Round of 32
#381WTA
1273ELO
1260Hard ELO
24 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLWWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 1 September 2026 ·
hard
#192WTA
1491ELO
1485Hard ELO
27 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWWLW
Arseneault A.
6-3 2-6 1-6
Gasanova A.
Arseneault A.
6211
Gasanova A.
3662

Anastasia Gasanova defeated Ariana Arseneault in the Round of 32 at the W50 Leiria tournament, coming back from a set down to win 3-6, 6-2, 6-1. Gasanova converted 73% of her break points and won 8 service breaks, compared to Arseneault's 5. The match saw both players hit one ace, with Gasanova committing 8 double faults to Arseneault's 5.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
44%
Service points won·Even
56%
55%
Return points won·Even
47%
48%
Break points saved·Even
55%
52%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.7
0.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.8
5.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Arseneault A.7%
Gasanova A.93%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Gasanova A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.2Hard Elo 1260
Surface ELO
7.8+225 Hard Elo edge
2.3Overall Elo 1273
ELO gap
7.7Overall Elo 1491
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.94 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.35 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
94
97

Arseneault A.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Gasanova A.: 9 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
23°CMainly clear
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 66%

Draw