Grigor Dimitrov vs Alexei PopyrinUS Open Round of 128

US Open · ATP · Round of 128
#137ATP
1744ELO
1736Hard ELO
35 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLLWLWWW
1 — 3
Sets
Monday, 31 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 12 · 3rd on
#130ATP
1741ELO
1681Hard ELO
27 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWLLL
Dimitrov G.
6-3 3-6 2-6 4-6
Popyrin A.
Dimitrov G.
63241
Popyrin A.
36663

Alexei Popyrin defeated Grigor Dimitrov in the Round of 128 at the US Open. Popyrin won the match 3-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4. He hit 11 aces and 2 double faults, converting 75 percent of his break points and securing 6 service breaks to Dimitrov's 3.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

Head to head

22
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-10-02Shanghai MastersR32hardGrigor Dimitrov7-6 6-2
2024-08-05Canada MastersR16hardAlexei Popyrin4-6 7-6 6-3
2021-08-30US OpenR64hardAlexei Popyrin7-6 7-6 4-0
2021-02-01Murray River OpenR16hardGrigor Dimitrov6-4 6-7 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
76%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
54%
Service points won·Even
64%
68%
Return points won·Even
34%
31%
Break points saved·Even
50%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
8.4
10.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.2
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
86
49
Break points saved·Even
98
97
Break points won·Dominant
64
1
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
68
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
97
88

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Dimitrov G.61%
Popyrin A.39%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Dimitrov G. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.7+55 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.3Hard Elo 1680
5.0Overall Elo 1744
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 1741
5.2Split 1–1 on hard
H2H
4.8Split 1–1 on hard
5.04 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.14 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R64 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
70
76

Dimitrov G.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 59 games (7d) · Popyrin A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 36 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 81%

Draw