Lucrezia Stefanini vs Dayana Yastremska — US Open Round of 128

US Open · WTA · Round of 128
Lucrezia Stefanini
ITAQ
Lucrezia Stefanini
#119WTA
1527ELO
1497Hard ELO
28 yrs · 164 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWWLLW
—
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
Dayana Yastremska
UKR
Dayana Yastremska
#112WTA
1792ELO
1733Hard ELO
$505kYTD
$6.5MCAREER
26 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWLWLWLW
Stefanini L.
vs
Yastremska D.

Lucrezia Stefanini faces Dayana Yastremska in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Dayana Yastremska is the paper favourite — ranked #112, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 240-point hard Elo advantage — but Lucrezia Stefanini rides a 3-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Stefanini L.34%
Yastremska D.66%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Yastremska D. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
4 common opponents · Stefanini L. 1–3 · Yastremska D. 2–4 · small sample
Both lost · different surfaces (Clay × Hard)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Stefanini L.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Yastremska D.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.1Hard Elo 1497
Surface ELO
7.9+236 Hard Elo edge
1.7Overall Elo 1527
ELO gap
8.3Overall Elo 1792
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.57 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
2.93 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

34 vs 32 matches

Statistics

This season
Stefanini L.Yastremska D.
1st serve in·Clear edge
76%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
54%
60%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
47%
Service points won·Even
52%
55%
Return points won·Even
47%
44%
Break points saved·Even
52%
49%
Aces / match·Clear edge
0.6
2.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.3
4.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Stefanini L.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Yastremska D.

Yastremska D.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Stefanini L.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Stefanini L.Yastremska D.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
32
37
Break points saved·Even
26
23
Break points won·Even
96
93
Deciding sets·Dominant
60
16
Tiebreaks·Dominant
19
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Stefanini L.Yastremska D.
Freshness·Slight edge
76
86

Stefanini L.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 53 games (7d) · Yastremska D.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 81%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw