Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Sonego — US Open Round of 128

US Open · ATP · Round of 128
Alexander Zverev
GER1
Alexander Zverev
#2ATP
2100ELO
2042Hard ELO
$6.5MYTD
$66MCAREER
29 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLLWWWWW
—
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
Lorenzo Sonego
ITA
Lorenzo Sonego
#91ATP
1719ELO
1702Hard ELO
$448kYTD
$9.8MCAREER
31 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLWLLWL
Zverev A.
vs
Sonego L.

Alexander Zverev faces Lorenzo Sonego in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Alexander Zverev is the paper favourite — ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 7–0, defending last year's round of 32 — but Lorenzo Sonego arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 4 on hard to Alexander Zverev's 2.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Zverev A.95%
Sonego L.5%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Zverev A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
18 common opponents · Zverev A. 20–7 · Sonego L. 6–13
Sonego L. better · different surfaces (Clay × Hard)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Zverev A.
7.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Sonego L.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.2+340 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.8Hard Elo 1702
9.8Overall Elo 2100
ELO gap
0.2Overall Elo 1719
8.2Leads 3–0 on hard
H2H
1.8Trails 0–3 on hard
6.47 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

50 vs 21 matches

Statistics

This season
Zverev A.Sonego L.
1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
77%
72%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
59%
54%
Service points won·Slight edge
72%
66%
Return points won·Even
38%
34%
Break points saved·Even
59%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
10.2
7.0
Double faults / match·Even
1.9
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (50 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Zverev A.serving96% hold

wins 77% of points on serve vs Sonego L.

Sonego L.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Zverev A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Zverev A.Sonego L.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
93
50
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Dominant
89
19
Deciding sets·Dominant
98
59
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
99
79

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Zverev A.Sonego L.
Freshness·Clear edge
89
68

Zverev A.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Sonego L.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 73 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 79%

Head to head

7–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-09-25BeijingR32hardAlexander Zverev6-4 6-3
2025-06-16HalleR16grassAlexander Zverev3-6 6-4 7-6
2024-06-17HalleR16grassAlexander Zverev6-4 7-6
2024-01-01United CupRRhardAlexander Zverev6-7 6-3 6-4
2023-12-30United CupRRhardAlexander Zverev6-7(5) 6-3 6-4
2023-02-27DubaiQFhardAlexander Zverev7-5 6-4
2021-04-12Monte Carlo MastersR32clayAlexander Zverev6-3 6-3
View full head-to-head →

Draw