Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard — US Open Round of 128
AUTQ
Rodionov J.
Jurij Rodionov faces Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard is the paper favourite — ranked #104, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage — but Jurij Rodionov rides a 3-match win streak.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Mpetshi Perricard G. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Jurij Rodionov comes in with 2 days of rest and 88 games in 14d, vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard's 6 and 17.
- Serve & return: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard leads on Serve Rating (78), Jurij Rodionov on Return Rating (59).
- Last match: Jurij Rodionov dropped the opening set before beating Jacob Fearnley 4–6 6–4 6–4.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadRodionov J.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 71 games (7d) · Mpetshi Perricard G.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.