Maria Sakkari vs Robin Montgomery — US Open Round of 128
GRE32
Sakkari M.
Maria Sakkari faces Robin Montgomery in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Maria Sakkari is the paper favourite — ranked #33, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage — but Robin Montgomery arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 5 on hard to Maria Sakkari's 2.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Maria Sakkari 51 games in 14 days, Robin Montgomery 59.
- Under pressure: Maria Sakkari has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 78 vs Robin Montgomery's 55).
- Last match: Robin Montgomery dropped the opening set before beating Carson Branstine 2–6 6–2 6–2.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSakkari M.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Montgomery R.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 59 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.