Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko — US Open Round of 128
LAT30
Maria T.
Tatjana Maria faces Jelena Ostapenko in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Jelena Ostapenko is the paper favourite — ranked #31, defending last year's round of 64, a roughly 190-point hard Elo advantage — but Tatjana Maria has won both their previous meetings, though none on hard.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Ostapenko J. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Jelena Ostapenko has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 68 vs Tatjana Maria's 1).
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Tatjana Maria grades 24 on serve, Jelena Ostapenko 55 on return.
- Head-to-head: Tatjana Maria leads the head-to-head 2–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at Eastbourne 2026.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (41 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMaria T.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Ostapenko J.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
2–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Eastbourne | SF | grass | Tatjana Maria | 6-1 1-2 |
| 2022-06-27 | Wimbledon | R16 | grass | Tatjana Maria | 5-7 7-5 7-5 |