Grigor Dimitrov vs Alexei Popyrin — US Open Round of 128
BULQ
Dimitrov G.
Grigor Dimitrov faces Alexei Popyrin in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Alexei Popyrin is the paper favourite — ranked #130, defending last year's round of 64 — but Grigor Dimitrov arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 4 on hard to Alexei Popyrin's 1. They have met 4 times, the series level at 2–2.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Dimitrov G. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Grigor Dimitrov comes in with 3 days of rest and 38 games in 14d, vs Alexei Popyrin's 9 and 30.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Grigor Dimitrov has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 86 vs 49).
- Last match: Grigor Dimitrov received a walkover from Otto Virtanen.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadDimitrov G.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Popyrin A.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
2–2| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-02 | Shanghai Masters | R32 | hard | Grigor Dimitrov | 7-6 6-2 |
| 2024-08-05 | Canada Masters | R16 | hard | Alexei Popyrin | 4-6 7-6 6-3 |
| 2021-08-30 | US Open | R64 | hard | Alexei Popyrin | 7-6 7-6 4-0 |
| 2021-02-01 | Murray River Open | R16 | hard | Grigor Dimitrov | 6-4 6-7 6-3 |