Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken — US Open Round of 128
ITA21
Darderi L.
Luciano Darderi faces Harry Wendelken in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Luciano Darderi is the paper favourite — ranked #22, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 120-point hard Elo advantage — but Harry Wendelken arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 8 on hard to Luciano Darderi's 4.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Darderi L. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Luciano Darderi 57 games in 14 days, Harry Wendelken 102.
- Last match: Harry Wendelken dropped the opening set before beating Vilius Gaubas 6–7 7–6 7–6.
- Stage: Luciano Darderi defends last year's round of 32.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadDarderi L.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d) · Wendelken H.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 102 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.