Andrey Chepelev vs N. Ciavarella — Como Qualifying Round of 32

Como · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round of 32
Andrey Chepelev
RUS
Andrey Chepelev
#374ATP
28 yrs · 178 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWWWWLLWWW
—
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
clay
Center Court · 5th on
ITA
N. Ciavarella
#1000ATP
22 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLWLLLLL
Chepelev A.
vs
Ciavarella N.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Chepelev A.70%
Ciavarella N.30%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Chepelev A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Chepelev A.
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Ciavarella N.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.12 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

15 vs 4 matches

Statistics

This season
Chepelev A.Ciavarella N.
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
50%
Service points won·Even
59%
56%
Return points won·Even
39%
41%
Break points saved·Even
58%
54%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.5
1.8
Double faults / match·Even
2.3
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 4). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Chepelev A.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Ciavarella N.

Ciavarella N.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Chepelev A.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Chepelev A.Ciavarella N.
Freshness·
98
—

Chepelev A.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

5th on Center Court · Not Before 18:00 · 1 match still to finish ahead

  1. 1Nedic A. v Garbero F.
    6-06-0
  2. 2Rottoli L. v La Vela G.
    7-66-3
  3. 3Covato M. v Tabacco F.Live
    5-76-32-3
  4. 4Forti F. v Ricca G.
    6-16-1
  5. 5Chepelev A. v Ciavarella N.This match

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
25°CPartly cloudy
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 72%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw