Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud — US Open Round of 128
NOR19
Cerundolo J.
Juan Manuel Cerundolo faces Casper Ruud in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Casper Ruud is the paper favourite — ranked #20, defending last year's round of 64, a roughly 230-point hard Elo advantage — but Juan Manuel Cerundolo has won 2 of their 3 previous meetings.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Ruud C. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Juan Manuel Cerundolo comes in with 2 days of rest and 120 games in 14d, vs Casper Ruud's 13 and 15.
- Serve & return: Casper Ruud brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 54), Juan Manuel Cerundolo the stronger return game (Return Rating 47).
- Head-to-head: Juan Manuel Cerundolo leads the head-to-head 2–1, 0–1 on hard. Last met at Montreal 2026.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadCerundolo J.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 65 games (7d) · Ruud C.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
2–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Montreal | R64 | hard | Casper Ruud | 6-1 6-2 |
| 2026-07-17 | Gstaad | QF | clay | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 3-6 7-5 6-2 |
| 2025-07-14 | Gstaad | QF | clay | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 6-2 1-6 6-3 |