Jiri Lehecka vs Pablo Carreno Busta — US Open Round of 128
CZE18
Lehecka J.
Jiri Lehecka faces Pablo Carreno Busta in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Jiri Lehecka holds the paper edge — ranked #19, defending last year's quarter-final, a roughly 140-point hard Elo advantage. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, Jiri Lehecka ahead 1–0 on hard.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Lehecka J. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Jiri Lehecka comes in with 11 days of rest and 61 games in 14d, vs Pablo Carreno Busta's 5 and 33.
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Jiri Lehecka grades 58 on serve, Pablo Carreno Busta 67 on return.
- Head-to-head: The head-to-head is level 1–1, 1–0 on hard. Last met at Roland Garros 2026.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadLehecka J.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Carreno Busta P.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 13 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Roland Garros | R128 | clay | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2026-02-23 | Dubai | R16 | hard | Jiri Lehecka | 7-6 6-4 |