Jiri Lehecka vs Pablo Carreno BustaDubai Round of 16

Dubai · ATP · Round of 16
#14ATP
1922ELO
1882Hard ELO
$1.5MYTD
$8.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 23 February 2026
hard
#71ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
34 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Lehecka J.
7-6 6-4
Carreno Busta P.
Lehecka J.
7862
Carreno Busta P.
6640

Jiri Lehecka defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 7-6 6-4 in the Dubai round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Jiri Lehecka came in ranked #14, defending last year's round of 32. Jiri Lehecka claimed a first win over Pablo Carreno Busta in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-25Roland GarrosR128clayPablo Carreno Busta6-3 7.7-6.3 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Lehecka J.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Lehecka J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Lehecka J.Carreno Busta P.
56
Serve
21
35
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
53%
Service points won·Even
66%
63%
Return points won·Even
36%
40%
Break points saved·Clear edge
70%
53%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.9
2.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
0.7
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
86
78
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Even
62
61
Deciding sets·Clear edge
98
80
Tiebreaks·Even
96
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.2+138 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.8Hard Elo 1744
7.5Overall Elo 1922
ELO gap
2.5Overall Elo 1801
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.7
Surface form
5.8
Fatigue & Travel
7.6
Minutes 14d
5.7
3-set count
0.0
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
65
89

Lehecka J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 84 games (7d) · Carreno Busta P.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°CClear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 53%