Marcos Giron vs Ignacio BuseUS Open Round of 128

US Open · ATP · Round of 128
#77ATP
1718ELO
1704Hard ELO
$500kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
33 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLWLWWLW
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
#36ATP
1822ELO
1662Hard ELO
$949kYTD
$1.4MCAREER
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLLLWWL
Giron M.
vs
Buse I.

Marcos Giron faces Ignacio Buse in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Ignacio Buse holds the paper edge — ranked #36, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 128.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Giron M.51%
Buse I.49%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
7 common opponents · Giron M. 2–6 · Buse I. 2–5
Buse I. better · different surfaces (Hard × Clay)
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.5+43 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Hard Elo 1662
3.7Overall Elo 1718
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1822
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
4.55 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.76 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

38 vs 32 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
50%
Service points won·Even
66%
63%
Return points won·Even
36%
38%
Break points saved·Even
63%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.2
3.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Giron M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Buse I.

Buse I.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Giron M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
45
63
Break points saved·Slight edge
94
87
Break points won·Slight edge
37
28
Deciding sets·Dominant
32
80
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
84
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
93
48

Giron M.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Buse I.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 110 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 79%

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-16LondonR32grassIgnacio Buse3-6 7-5

Draw