Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien — US Open Round of 128

US Open · ATP · Round of 128
Nuno Borges
POR
Nuno Borges
#41ATP
1769ELO
1714Hard ELO
$811kYTD
$5.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLWWWLW
—
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
Learner Tien
USA14
Learner Tien
#15ATP
1941ELO
1904Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$4.4MCAREER
20 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWLWWWWLLW
Borges N.
vs
Tien L.

Nuno Borges faces Learner Tien in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Learner Tien is the paper favourite — ranked #15, leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending last year's round of 128 — but Nuno Borges arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 8 on hard to Learner Tien's 5.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Borges N.28%
Tien L.72%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Tien L. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
13 common opponents · Borges N. 8–12 · Tien L. 9–10
Both lost · different surfaces (Grass × Hard)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Borges N.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Tien L.
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.6Hard Elo 1714
Surface ELO
7.4+190 Hard Elo edge
2.8Overall Elo 1769
ELO gap
7.2Overall Elo 1941
2.2Trails 0–2 on hard
H2H
7.8Leads 2–0 on hard
6.87 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.86 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

41 vs 30 matches

Statistics

This season
Borges N.Tien L.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
50%
Service points won·Even
66%
63%
Return points won·Even
35%
39%
Break points saved·Even
64%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.4
7.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.9
4.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (41 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Borges N.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Tien L.

Tien L.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Borges N.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Borges N.Tien L.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
58
91
Break points saved·Even
93
92
Break points won·Dominant
23
88
Deciding sets·Slight edge
91
99
Tiebreaks·Dominant
54
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Borges N.Tien L.
Freshness·Even
91
93

Borges N.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Tien L.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 79%

Head to head

0–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-19Australian OpenR32hardLearner Tien7-6 6-4 6-2
2025-10-27Paris MastersR64hardLearner Tien6-2 7-6

Draw