Emma Navarro vs Lois BoissonUS Open Round of 128

US Open · WTA · Round of 128
#27WTA
1866ELO
1764Hard ELO
$922kYTD
$6.6MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLWLWWLW
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
#236WTA
1728ELO
1568Hard ELO
$57kYTD
$1.2MCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWLWLLLL
Navarro E.
vs
Boisson L.

Emma Navarro faces Lois Boisson in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Emma Navarro holds the paper edge — ranked #27, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 32. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Navarro E.69%
Boisson L.31%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Navarro E. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
2 common opponents · Navarro E. 1–1 · Boisson L. 0–2 · small sample
Navarro E. better · same surface, 4 days apart
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.4+195 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.6Hard Elo 1568
6.7Overall Elo 1866
ELO gap
3.3Overall Elo 1728
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
3.03 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.46 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

32 vs 8 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
37%
Service points won·Even
58%
55%
Return points won·Slight edge
43%
37%
Break points saved·Even
57%
56%
Aces / match·Even
3.3
2.8
Double faults / match·Even
3.8
3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 8). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Navarro E.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Boisson L.

Boisson L.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Navarro E.

Serve advantage — Navarro E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
96
93

Navarro E.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Boisson L.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 7 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 79%

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-09-24BeijingR32hardEmma Navarro6-2 1-0

Draw