Cezar Cretu vs Miguel Damas — Augsburg Round of 16

Augsburg · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
ROU5
Cezar Cretu
#266ATP
1524ELO
1492Clay ELO
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLLLLWLL
—
Sets
Wednesday, 26 August 2026 ·
clay
ESP
Miguel Damas
#302ATP
1398ELO
1370Clay ELO
26 yrs · 208 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLLWWLWW
Cretu C.
vs
Damas M.

Cezar Cretu faces Miguel Damas in the Augsburg round of 16 on clay. Cezar Cretu is the paper favourite — ranked #266, a roughly 120-point clay Elo advantage — but Miguel Damas arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 10 on clay to Cezar Cretu's 3.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Cretu C.69%
Damas M.31%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Cretu C. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Cretu C.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Damas M.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.5+122 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.5Clay Elo 1370
6.6Overall Elo 1524
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1398
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.53 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.55 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

13 vs 33 matches

Statistics

This season
Cretu C.Damas M.
1st serve in·Even
66%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
65%
60%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
56%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
52%
Aces / match·Even
1.5
1.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.4
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (13 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Cretu C.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Damas M.

Damas M.serving47% hold

wins 49% of points on serve vs Cretu C.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Cretu C.Damas M.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
25
0
Break points saved·Even
33
29
Break points won·Dominant
64
17
Deciding sets·Dominant
31
1
Tiebreaks·
—
40

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Cretu C.Damas M.
Freshness·Slight edge
89
84

Cretu C.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d) · Damas M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather forecast
24°CPartly cloudy
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 64%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw