Madison Brengle vs Lucrezia StefaniniUS Open Qualifying Round of 64

US Open · WTA · Qualifying Round of 64
#211WTA
1575ELO
1539Hard ELO
36 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWLLWWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 26 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 10 · 2nd on
#119WTA
1527ELO
1497Hard ELO
28 yrs · 164 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWLLWL
Brengle M.
2-6 3-6
Stefanini L.
Brengle M.
230
Stefanini L.
662

Lucrezia Stefanini defeated Madison Brengle 6-2, 6-3 in the qualifying round 64 of the US Open. Stefanini converted 60% of her break points and won 61% of her first-serve points, compared to Brengle's 50% and 49%, respectively. Stefanini won 6 service breaks to Brengle's 3.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
79%
76%
1st serve points won·Even
54%
54%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
44%
Service points won·Even
52%
52%
Return points won·Even
50%
47%
Break points saved·Even
50%
52%
Aces / match·Even
0.3
0.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.4
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
8
32
Break points saved·Dominant
1
26
Break points won·Slight edge
87
96
Deciding sets·Dominant
1
60
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
24
19

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Brengle M.39%
Stefanini L.61%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Stefanini L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.5+42 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Hard Elo 1497
5.6Overall Elo 1575
ELO gap
4.4Overall Elo 1527
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.93 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
87
76

Brengle M.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 34 games (7d) · Stefanini L.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 53 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
28°CMainly clear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 47%

Draw