Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia StefaniniUS Open Qualifying Round of 128

US Open · WTA · Qualifying Round of 128
#200WTA
1521ELO
1513Hard ELO
30 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Monday, 24 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 10 · 2nd on
#119WTA
1527ELO
1497Hard ELO
28 yrs · 164 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWLLWL
Aksu A.
2-6 3-6
Stefanini L.
Aksu A.
230
Stefanini L.
662

Lucrezia Stefanini defeated Ayla Aksu in the first round of US Open qualifying, 6-2, 6-3. Stefanini hit 0 aces and 1 double fault, while Aksu had 1 ace and 4 double faults. Stefanini won 71% of her first-serve points and converted 67% of her break points, compared to Aksu's 46% and 100%, respectively; Stefanini had 6 service breaks to Aksu's 3.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-08-30W60 Collonge-BelleriveR32clayLucrezia Stefanini6-1 7-6(2)

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
64%
76%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
62%
54%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
44%
Service points won·Even
56%
52%
Return points won·Even
46%
47%
Break points saved·Even
54%
52%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.4
0.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.3
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Aksu A.44%
Stefanini L.56%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.2+16 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.8Hard Elo 1497
4.9Overall Elo 1521
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1527
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.36 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.86 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
94
76

Aksu A.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Stefanini L.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 53 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
28°CMainly clear
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 45%

Draw