Sebastian Baez vs Lloyd HarrisCancun 2 Semi-final

Cancun 2 · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
#50ATP
1759ELO
1709Hard ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 23 August 2026 ·
hard
#139ATP
1665ELO
1640Hard ELO
$130kYTD
$4.7MCAREER
29 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWWWW
Baez S.
6-4 6-4
Harris L.
Baez S.
662
Harris L.
440

Sebastian Baez defeated Lloyd Harris in the semifinals of the Cancun 2 tournament, winning 6-4, 6-4 on hard courts. Baez hit 2 aces and 1 double fault, winning 85% of his first serves and converting 50% of break points. Harris hit 4 aces and 1 double fault, winning 69% of his first serves and converting 100% of break points, but was ultimately out in 2 sets.

Key context

  • Match story: Sebastian Baez edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-25US OpenR128hardLloyd Harris6-3 7-5 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
65%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
66%
Return points won·Even
38%
38%
Break points saved·Even
65%
69%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.9
7.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.9
1.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
75
48
Break points saved·Even
86
89
Break points won·Dominant
77
12
Deciding sets·Slight edge
90
95
Tiebreaks·Dominant
62
25

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Baez S.39%
Harris L.61%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Harris L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9+68 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Hard Elo 1640
6.2Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
3.8Overall Elo 1665
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
10.010 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
10.010-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 10 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
64
46

Baez S.: 3 days rest · 5 matches, 98 games (7d) · Harris L.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 99 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
26°CMainly clear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 91%

Draw