Roman Safiullin vs Stan WawrinkaCancun 2 Round of 16

Cancun 2 · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#98ATP
1750ELO
1704Hard ELO
$199kYTD
$4.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 21 August 2026 ·
hard
ESTADIO FUNO · 2nd on
#127ATP
1678ELO
1664Hard ELO
$657kYTD
$38MCAREER
41 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLLLWLWL
Safiullin R.
6-3 6-4
Wawrinka S.
Safiullin R.
662
Wawrinka S.
340

Roman Safiullin defeated Stan Wawrinka in the Round of 16 at the Cancun 2 tournament, winning 6-3, 6-4 on hard courts. Safiullin hit 5 aces and did not commit a double fault, while Wawrinka had 3 aces and 2 double faults. Safiullin converted 100% of his break points and won both service breaks to secure the victory.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-09-26BeijingR32hardRoman Safiullin6-3 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
55%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
55%
Service points won·Even
66%
66%
Return points won·Slight edge
39%
33%
Break points saved·Even
64%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.9
8.3
Double faults / match·Even
2.8
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
17
53
Break points saved·Even
93
97
Break points won·Even
18
17
Deciding sets·Dominant
17
62
Tiebreaks·Dominant
13
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Safiullin R.72%
Wawrinka S.28%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Safiullin R. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.5+40 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Hard Elo 1664
5.9Overall Elo 1750
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1678
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
3.63 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.36 of last 10 on hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
77
94

Safiullin R.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d) · Wawrinka S.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
26°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 73%

Draw