Amanda Anisimova vs Jessica PegulaCincinnati Semi-final

Cincinnati · WTA · Semi-final
#10WTA
1914ELO
1880Hard ELO
$1.4MYTD
$14MCAREER
24 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Friday, 21 August 2026 ·
hard
#3WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$3.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWWLWW
Anisimova A.
6-4 2-6 7-6
Pegula J.
Anisimova A.
62772
Pegula J.
46641

Jessica Pegula defeated Amanda Anisimova in the Cincinnati quarterfinals, 6-4, 2-6, 7-6. The match saw Anisimova secure five service breaks to Pegula's four, though Pegula converted 57% of her break points to Anisimova's 100%. Pegula hit three aces and two double faults, compared to Anisimova's four aces and three double faults.

Key context

  • Match story: Jessica Pegula closed it out in three sets, 4–6 6–2 6–7.

Head to head

06
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-08-20CincinnatiQFhardJessica Pegula4-6 6-2 6-7(4)
2026-02-15DubaiSFhardJessica Pegula1-6 6-4 6-3
2026-01-19Australian OpenQFhardJessica Pegula6-2 7-6
2024-08-05TorontoFhardJessica Pegula6-3 2-6 6-1
2024-04-01CharlestonR32clayJessica Pegula3-6 6-4 7-6
2020-08-24CincinnatiR32hardJessica Pegula7-5 6-2

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
50%
Service points won·Even
60%
62%
Return points won·Even
46%
45%
Break points saved·Even
55%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.6
4.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.1
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 38). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
88
93
Break points saved·Even
84
86
Break points won·Even
99
99
Deciding sets·Even
95
99
Tiebreaks·Even
91
90

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Anisimova A.42%
Pegula J.58%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.8Hard Elo 1880
Surface ELO
7.2+178 Hard Elo edge
2.7Overall Elo 1914
ELO gap
7.3Overall Elo 2096
1.6Trails 0–4 on hard
H2H
8.4Leads 4–0 on hard
6.06 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.38 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
39
38

Anisimova A.: played today · 5 matches, 124 games (7d) · Pegula J.: played today · 5 matches, 129 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 62%

Draw