Alexander Wagner vs Tomas LanikM15 Mistelbach Round of 16

M15 Mistelbach · ITF · Round of 16
#1194ATP
19 yrs
Last 10
WLWLLLWLWW
Sets
Thursday, 20 August 2026 ·
clay
#1469ATP
24 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWWWLWWW
Wagner A.
vs
Lanik T.

Alexander Wagner faces Tomas Lanik in the M15 Mistelbach round of 16 on clay. Alexander Wagner is the paper favourite — ranked #1194 — but Tomas Lanik arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on clay to Alexander Wagner's 5.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTC
Wagner A.44%
Lanik T.56%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Last match: Tomas Lanik dropped just 4 games past J. Siftar.
  • Surface form: Alexander Wagner 5 of 10, Tomas Lanik 7 of 10 on clay recently — Tomas Lanik the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Alexander Wagner carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
3.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
0.00 of last 5 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 10
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

9 vs 12 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
61%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
61%
75%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
45%
55%
Service points won·Slight edge
56%
67%
Return points won·Even
42%
38%
Break points saved·Clear edge
54%
73%
Aces / match·Dominant
0.8
5.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.0
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (9 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Wagner A.serving63% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Lanik T.

Lanik T.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Wagner A.

Serve advantage — Lanik T.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
25°CShowers
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 70%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw