Michael Geerts vs Lucas Poullain — Roehampton Quarter-final

Roehampton · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final

BEL8

Michael Geerts

#348ATP

1400ELO

1383Hard ELO

31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWWWLLLL

—

Sets

Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 14:00

hard

COURT 5 · 2nd on

FRA

Lucas Poullain

#369ATP

1295ELO

1286Hard ELO

30 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWWWWWLLW

Geerts M.

Poullain L.

Michael Geerts faces Lucas Poullain in the Roehampton quarter-final on hard. Michael Geerts is the paper favourite — ranked #348, a roughly 100-point hard Elo advantage — but Lucas Poullain has won their only previous meeting. Lucas Poullain brings the better recent hard form (4 of 4).

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC

Geerts M.39%

Poullain L.61%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Poullain L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Michael Geerts 22 games in 14 days, Lucas Poullain 115.
Last match: Michael Geerts dropped the opening set before beating Radu Albot 4–6 6–4 6–4.
Last match: Lucas Poullain dropped just 6 games past Viktor Durasovic.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Geerts M.

5.2

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Poullain L.

5.5

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

6.2+97 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.8Hard Elo 1286

6.3Overall Elo 1400

ELO gap

3.7Overall Elo 1295

5.0First meeting on hard

H2H

5.0First meeting on hard

4.64 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

9.39 of last 10 on hard

Win streak

9.07-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

18 vs 16 matches

Statistics

This season

Geerts M.Poullain L.

1st serve in·Slight edge

57%

68%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

74%

65%

2nd serve points won·Even

53%

51%

Service points won·Even

65%

61%

Return points won·Slight edge

35%

41%

Break points saved·Slight edge

62%

55%

Aces / match·Dominant

5.3

1.5

Double faults / match·Dominant

2.6

0.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Geerts M.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Poullain L.

Poullain L.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Geerts M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Geerts M.Poullain L.

Clutch Rating·Even

Break points saved·Dominant

Break points won·Clear edge

Deciding sets·Even

Tiebreaks·Dominant

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Geerts M.Poullain L.

Freshness·Slight edge

Geerts M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Poullain L.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

20°CDrizzle

Wind 16 km/hHumidity 61%

Head to head

0–1

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2021-03-04	M25 Faro 1	R16	hard	Lucas Poullain	6-0 4-0

Michael Geerts vs Lucas Poullain — Roehampton Quarter-final

Win Probability

Key context

Common opponents

Umpiry Score

Statistics

Serve vs return

Clutch

Freshness

Conditions

Head to head

Draw