Madison Keys vs Xiyu WangCincinnati Round of 16

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 16
#23WTA
1987ELO
1920Hard ELO
$1.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 20 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 2 · 4th on
#82WTA
1772ELO
1724Hard ELO
25 yrs · 182 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWWWW
Keys M.
7-6 6-4
Wang X.
Keys M.
7762
Wang X.
6340

Madison Keys defeated Xiy. Wang in the Round of 16 at the Cincinnati tournament, winning 7-6, 6-4 on hard courts. Keys served 5 aces and committed 4 double faults, while converting 38% of break points and winning 83% of first-serve points. Keys secured 3 service breaks to Wang's 2.

Around the match

  • It feels like a long time ago. I learned a lot from that experience, how to manage my energy and emotions throughout two weeks, and how to manage those days at Slams when things get busier.

  • It would be incredible to be able to put myself in that position again. I think it's really just focusing on the things that are going to give me the best opportunity to get myself back in that position.

  • Unfortunately I tried my best to recover but the injury I sustained in Toronto and also pushed by the second round match, I didn't recover as I wish I could to get ready for my next round.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-16BerlinR32grassMadison Keys6-1
2023-06-26EastbourneR16grassMadison Keys6-2 7-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
76%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
61%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
53%
Service points won·Even
61%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
44%
54%
Break points saved·Even
64%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.9
0.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.5
1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
89
3
Break points saved·Dominant
85
40
Break points won·Dominant
92
33
Deciding sets·Dominant
94
6
Tiebreaks·Dominant
95
4

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Keys M.95%
Wang X.5%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Keys M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.36 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.85 of last 7 on hard
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
85
74

Keys M.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Wang X.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
26°CMainly clear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 80%

Draw