Yaroslav Demin vs Carles Hernandez — M25 Santander Round of 32

M25 Santander · ITF · Round of 32
RUSWC
Yaroslav Demin
#674ATP
20 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLWWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 18 August 2026 ·
clay
ESP
Carles Hernandez
#766ATP
25 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLLWWW
Demin Y.
6-3 4-6 4-6
Hernandez C.
Demin Y.
6441
Hernandez C.
3662

Carles Hernandez defeated Yaroslav Demin 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 in the Round of 32 at the M25 Santander tournament on clay. Both players hit three aces and had four service breaks, with Hernandez converting 36% of break points and Demin converting 67%. Hernandez also recorded 2 double faults to Demin's 3.

Key context

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-21M15 Alcala de Henares 1QFhardYaroslav Demin6-3 6-3
2020-12-06M15 Torello 1Q64hardCarles Hernandez6-0 7-6(7)

Statistics

This season
Demin Y.Hernandez C.
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
62%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
44%
51%
Service points won·Even
57%
58%
Return points won·Even
42%
45%
Break points saved·Even
64%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
0.7
1.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
9.3
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (3 vs 7). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Demin Y.33%
Hernandez C.67%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Hernandez C. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Demin Y.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Hernandez C.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
3.32 of last 8 on clay
Surface form
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.0Hard → Clay
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Demin Y.Hernandez C.
Freshness·
100
—

Demin Y.: 17 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
22°CMainly clear
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 77%

Draw