Francisco Rocha vs Tiago Cacao — M25 Idanha-A-Nova Round of 32
M25 Idanha-A-Nova · ITF · Round of 32
—
Sets
Wednesday, 12 August 2026 ·
hard
Rocha F.vs
Cacao T.
Francisco Rocha faces Tiago Cacao in the M25 Idanha-A-Nova round of 32 on hard. Tiago Cacao holds the paper edge — ranked #695, leading the head-to-head 2–0.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTCRocha F.37%
Cacao T.63%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Slight edge · Cacao T. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Head-to-head: Tiago Cacao leads the head-to-head 2–0. Last met at M15 Castelo Branco 2026.
- Fatigue load: Tiago Cacao carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
- Surface form: Francisco Rocha 5 of 9, Tiago Cacao 7 of 9 on hard recently — Tiago Cacao the sharper of late.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limitedForm & Matchup
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
3.23 of last 10 on hard
Surface form2.23 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 7
Win streak0.0Lost last 6
Fatigue & Travel
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transitionContext
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
15 vs 9 matches
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Slight edge
53%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
56%
Service points won·Even
59%
63%
Return points won·Even
39%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
67%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.7
2.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.1
2.3
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 9). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonServe advantage — Cacao T.
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Weather forecast
33°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 28%
Head to head
0–2| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | M15 Castelo Branco | QF | hard | Tiago Cacao | 4-6 7-6(8) 2-6 |
| 2019-07-16 | M15 Castelo Branco 1 | R32 | hard | Tiago Cacao | 6-2 6-1 |