Jakub Mensik vs Ben Shelton — Montreal Quarter-final
CZE13
USA5
Mensik J.
Jakub Mensik faces Ben Shelton in the Montreal quarter-final on hard. Ben Shelton is the paper favourite — ranked #10, a roughly 30-point hard Elo advantage — but Jakub Mensik has won 2 of their 3 previous meetings. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Ben Shelton brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 82), Jakub Mensik the stronger return game (Return Rating 45).
- Freshness: Jakub Mensik comes in with 0 days of rest and 133 games in 14d, vs Ben Shelton's 1 and 154.
- Last match: Jakub Mensik edged Botic Van De Zandschulp in two tight sets (6–4 7–5).
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMensik J.: played today · 3 matches, 71 games (7d) · Shelton B.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 60 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
2–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | R32 | clay | Jakub Mensik | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2025-01-06 | Auckland | R16 | hard | Jakub Mensik | 7-6 4-6 7-5 |
| 2024-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | R64 | hard | Ben Shelton | 4-6 6-3 6-4 |