Arthur Rinderknech vs Brandon Nakashima — Montreal Round of 16

Montreal · ATP · Round of 16
Arthur Rinderknech
FRA23
Arthur Rinderknech
#29ATP
1780ELO
1748Hard ELO
$855kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLWLWWLL
—
Sets
Monday, 10 August 2026 ·
hard
Brandon Nakashima
USA28
Brandon Nakashima
#31ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWWWLL
Rinderknech A.
vs
Nakashima B.

Arthur Rinderknech faces Brandon Nakashima in the Montreal round of 16 on hard. Brandon Nakashima holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 40-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Rinderknech A.40%
Nakashima B.60%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Nakashima B. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
13 common opponents · Rinderknech A. 10–10 · Nakashima B. 8–7
Both lost · same surface, 30 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Rinderknech A.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Nakashima B.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.5Hard Elo 1748
Surface ELO
5.5+40 Hard Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1780
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1839
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.75 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.27 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

28 vs 28 matches

Statistics

This season
Rinderknech A.Nakashima B.
1st serve in·Even
64%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
77%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
51%
Service points won·Even
68%
69%
Return points won·Even
33%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
58%
Aces / match·Clear edge
12.4
10.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.0
0.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Rinderknech A.serving93% hold

wins 73% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Nakashima B.serving95% hold

wins 75% of points on serve vs Rinderknech A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Rinderknech A.Nakashima B.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
49
29
Break points saved·Even
98
96
Break points won·Even
2
4
Deciding sets·Dominant
90
20
Tiebreaks·Dominant
35
82

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Rinderknech A.Nakashima B.
Freshness·Clear edge
72
52

Rinderknech A.: played today · 2 matches, 43 games (7d) · Nakashima B.: played today · 4 matches, 95 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
24°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 54%

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-05-22LyonR16clayBrandon Nakashima7-6 1-6 7-5

Draw