Luciano Darderi vs Brandon Nakashima — Montreal Quarter-final

Montreal · ATP · Quarter-final
Luciano Darderi
ITA19
Luciano Darderi
#22ATP
1835ELO
1678Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$4.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLLWWLWW
—
Sets
Monday, 10 August 2026 ·
hard
Brandon Nakashima
USA28
Brandon Nakashima
#31ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWWWWL
Darderi L.
vs
Nakashima B.

Luciano Darderi faces Brandon Nakashima in the Montreal quarter-final on hard. Luciano Darderi holds the paper edge — ranked #22. Recent hard form is closely matched. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, Brandon Nakashima ahead 1–0 on hard.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Darderi L.35%
Nakashima B.65%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Nakashima B. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
12 common opponents · Darderi L. 7–8 · Nakashima B. 7–7
Both lost · same surface, 30 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Darderi L.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Nakashima B.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.6Hard Elo 1678
Surface ELO
6.4+109 Hard Elo edge
4.9Overall Elo 1834
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1839
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.67 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

37 vs 28 matches

Statistics

This season
Darderi L.Nakashima B.
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
69%
Return points won·Even
37%
34%
Break points saved·Even
60%
58%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.4
10.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.4
0.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Darderi L.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Nakashima B.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Darderi L.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Darderi L.Nakashima B.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
67
33
Break points saved·Slight edge
89
96
Break points won·Clear edge
23
3
Deciding sets·Dominant
96
31
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
96
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Darderi L.Nakashima B.
Freshness·Clear edge
60
46

Darderi L.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 73 games (7d) · Nakashima B.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 82 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
24°COvercast
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 69%

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-20ViennaR32hardBrandon Nakashima6-2 7-5
2025-05-18HamburgR16clayLuciano Darderi7-5 6-7 6-2

Draw