Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek — Toronto Round of 16
UKR10
POL7
Kostyuk M.
Marta Kostyuk faces Iga Swiatek in the Toronto round of 16 on hard. Iga Swiatek holds the paper edge — ranked #8, leading the head-to-head 3–1, a roughly 50-point hard Elo advantage.
Around the match
“I read quite a lot, just when I have some time off. I'm not watching anything currently, so most of the time goes to reading, but it's not anything planned.”
Swiatek I.WTA Tennis ↗“Well, I probably wasn't aware how far I can throw. I think that was really it. I wanted to throw it further in the stands. But, yeah, it went a little too far. I was really surprised with the strength I have.”
Kostyuk M.WTA Tennis ↗“To have fun and to be positive when everything is good is really easy, and I think everyone can do it. How you deal with difficult moments, and how you handle losses, this is the part where I feel like you can always improve.”
Kostyuk M.WTA Tennis ↗“For sure it was a good day and I'm really happy with the way I played. I played back her slice pretty well so the change of rhythm didn't bother me that much.”
Swiatek I.Inquirer.net ↗
Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Marta Kostyuk grades 65 on serve, Iga Swiatek 94 on return.
- Last match: Marta Kostyuk dropped just 4 games past Madison Keys.
- Last match: Iga Swiatek dropped just 3 games past Viktorija Golubic.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadKostyuk M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 35 games (7d) · Swiatek I.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–3| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Roland Garros | R16 | clay | Marta Kostyuk | 7-5 6-1 |
| 2024-08-12 | Cincinnati | R16 | hard | Iga Swiatek | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2024-03-06 | Indian Wells | SF | hard | Iga Swiatek | 6-2 6-1 |
| 2021-05-31 | Roland Garros | R16 | clay | Iga Swiatek | 6-3 6-4 |