Arthur Fils vs Cameron Norrie — Montreal Round of 16
FRA18
Fils A.
Arthur Fils faces Cameron Norrie in the Montreal round of 16 on hard. Arthur Fils is the paper favourite — ranked #24, a roughly 140-point hard Elo advantage — but Cameron Norrie rides a 3-match win streak.
Around the match
Norrie's comeback victory over de Minaur, saving a match point and winning the final set 6-1, extends his winning record against the Australian to 4-3 and moves him closer to British No. 1 ranking.
Norrie C.tennismajors.com ↗
Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Fils A. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Arthur Fils comes in with 1 days of rest and 65 games in 14d, vs Cameron Norrie's 1 and 154.
- Serve & return: Arthur Fils brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 61), Cameron Norrie the stronger return game (Return Rating 39).
- Last match: Cameron Norrie dropped the opening set before beating Alex De Minaur 5–7 7–6 6–1.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.