Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos vs Carlos Maria ZarateM25 Londrina Semi-final

M25 Londrina · ITF · Semi-final
#528ATP
1154ELO
1144Clay ELO
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Friday, 7 August 2026 ·
clay
#394ATP
1200ELO
1187Clay ELO
21 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLWWWL
Andre Saraiva Dos Santos P.
7-6 3-6 7-6
Maria Zarate C.
Andre Saraiva Dos Santos P.
7372
Maria Zarate C.
6661

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos defeated Carlos Maria Zarate in the semifinals of the M25 Londrina tournament on clay, winning 7-6, 3-6, 7-6. Saraiva Dos Santos hit 7 aces to Zarate's 1 and committed 1 double fault to Zarate's 4. Zarate converted 50% of his break points, while Saraiva Dos Santos converted 30%.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-24M25 Sao PauloQFclayPaulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos6-4 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
54%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
47%
Service points won·Even
61%
59%
Return points won·Even
39%
42%
Break points saved·Even
59%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.1
2.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.6
4.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:50 UTC
Andre Saraiva Dos Santos P.42%
Maria Zarate C.58%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Maria Zarate C. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.5Clay Elo 1144
Surface ELO
5.5+43 Clay Elo edge
4.4Overall Elo 1154
ELO gap
5.6Overall Elo 1200
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
5.46 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.55 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
64

Andre Saraiva Dos Santos P.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 78 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
27°CMainly clear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 67%

Draw