Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos vs Carlos Maria ZarateM25 Sao Paulo Quarter-final

M25 Sao Paulo · ITF · Quarter-final
#528ATP
1154ELO
1144Clay ELO
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 24 July 2026 ·
clay
#394ATP
1200ELO
1187Clay ELO
21 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWWL
Andre Saraiva Dos Santos P.
6-4 6-3
Maria Zarate C.
Andre Saraiva Dos Santos P.
662
Maria Zarate C.
430

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos defeated Carlos Maria Zarate in the quarterfinals of the M25 Sao Paulo tournament on clay, winning 6-4, 6-3. Saraiva Dos Santos hit 4 aces and committed 0 double faults, while Zarate had 1 ace and 3 double faults. Saraiva Dos Santos converted 36% of break points and broke Zarate's serve 4 times, compared to Zarate's 1 service break.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-08-07M25 LondrinaSFclayPaulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos7-6 3-6 7-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
54%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
47%
Service points won·Even
61%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
38%
43%
Break points saved·Even
59%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.1
2.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.7
4.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Andre Saraiva Dos Santos P.29%
Maria Zarate C.71%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Maria Zarate C. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.5Clay Elo 1144
Surface ELO
5.5+43 Clay Elo edge
4.4Overall Elo 1154
ELO gap
5.6Overall Elo 1200
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.46 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.55 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
64

Andre Saraiva Dos Santos P.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 78 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
17°COvercast
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 81%

Draw