Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul — Montreal Round of 32
USA12
USA17
Tien L.Learner Tien faces Tommy Paul in the Montreal round of 32 on hard. Learner Tien is the paper favourite — ranked #19, a roughly 20-point hard Elo advantage — but Tommy Paul has won their only previous meeting.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Tommy Paul leads on Serve Rating (56), Learner Tien on Return Rating (76).
- Last match: Tommy Paul edged Valentin Royer in two tight sets (6–4 7–6).
- Head-to-head: Tommy Paul leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Delray Beach 2026.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 38). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | Delray Beach | SF | hard | Tommy Paul | 4-6 6-4 6-3 |