Mathys Erhard vs Ivan Marrero Curbelo — Grodzisk Mazowiecki Quarter-final

Grodzisk Mazowiecki · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
FRA
Mathys Erhard
#337ATP
1382ELO
1348Hard ELO
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 7 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 3rd on
ESP
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
#354ATP
1303ELO
1237Hard ELO
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWWW
Erhard M.
6-3 6-3
Marrero Curbelo I.
Erhard M.
662
Marrero Curbelo I.
330

Mathys Erhard advanced to the semifinals of the Grodzisk Mazowiecki tournament by defeating Ivan Marrero Curbelo 6-3, 6-3 in the quarterfinals. Erhard dominated the match, serving eight aces and converting 67% of his break points to secure four service breaks. Marrero Curbelo managed to break Erhard's serve once, but was unable to capitalize on more opportunities.

Key context

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-07-10M25 The Hague 1R32clayMathys Erhard6-3 6-2

Statistics

This season
Erhard M.Marrero Curbelo I.
1st serve in·Even
62%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
63%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
37%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.7
0.8
Double faults / match·Even
3.1
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Erhard M.58%
Marrero Curbelo I.42%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Erhard M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Erhard M.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Marrero Curbelo I.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.4+111 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Hard Elo 1237
6.0Overall Elo 1382
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1302
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.47 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Erhard M.Marrero Curbelo I.
Freshness·Clear edge
92
72

Erhard M.: 11 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Marrero Curbelo I.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
24°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 51%

Draw