Daria Kasatkina vs Elena Rybakina — Toronto Round of 64
KAZ2
Kasatkina D.
Daria Kasatkina faces Elena Rybakina in the Toronto round of 64 on hard. Elena Rybakina holds the paper edge — ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 3–2, a roughly 350-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Rybakina E. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Elena Rybakina leads on Serve Rating (100), Daria Kasatkina on Return Rating (100).
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Elena Rybakina has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 99 vs 53).
- Last match: Daria Kasatkina dropped the opening set before beating Xiyu Wang 1–6 7–6 7–5.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 40). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadKasatkina D.: played today · 2 matches, 49 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
2–3| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-05 | Abu Dhabi | F | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2023-08-07 | Montreal | QF | hard | Elena Rybakina | 5-7 7-5 7-6 |
| 2022-08-01 | San Jose | R32 | hard | Daria Kasatkina | 1-6 6-2 6-0 |
| 2021-01-06 | Abu Dhabi | R16 | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2020-10-19 | Ostrava | R32 | hard | Daria Kasatkina | 6-2 3-6 6-3 |