Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti — Montreal Round of 32
ITA11
Jodar R.
Rafael Jodar faces Lorenzo Musetti in the Montreal round of 32 on hard. Rafael Jodar holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 70-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Rafael Jodar 145 games in 14 days, Lorenzo Musetti 85.
- Form trend: Lorenzo Musetti's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Rafael Jodar's has cooled.
- Last match: Rafael Jodar dropped the opening set before beating Corentin Moutet 4–6 6–1 6–3.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (47 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadJodar R.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 123 games (7d) · Musetti L.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Washington | QF | hard | Rafael Jodar | 1-6 6-1 6-4 |